Europe is experiencing an exceptionally cold and snowy winter, but at least Russian gas is flowing at full volume through Ukraine and Belarus with no interruptions. Several times in the last few months Moscow has sent warnings on probable complications to European customers, but each time monthly payments for imported gas arrived from Kyiv without delay, as in the first week of January (RIA Novosti, January 7). Russia is thus denied an opportunity to make good political use of the “pay-or-freeze” weather and it is also showing uncharacteristic patience in the talks on oil prices with Belarus, which is eager to take full advantage of the newly-established Customs Union (Vedomosti, January 4). The perfect balance of demand and supply does not mean, however, that the period of “gas wars” and oil cuts is over, and Europe has found a way towards a sustainable energy peace.

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