Several events have recently occurred that will embolden Russia to adopt a more aggressive and less cooperative stance in its dealings with the West, particularly with the Baltic countries, a dean of the Baltic Defence College in Estonia, a Lieutenant Colonel in the US Army Reserve (rtd), James Corum, wrote in the British edition of the Daily Telegraph newspaper.

  The Ukrainian attempt to join the West is now finished, or at least put on hold. Ukraine is now likely to opt to become a satellite state of Russia and join with Russia and Belarus (another satellite state) in a Russian-controlled trade pact to counter the EU and WTO.

  This will encourage the Russia to continue its crackdown of dissent and to suppress the small vestiges of democracy.

  According to Corum, Russian foreign policy is based on a truly weird combination of nostalgia for the old Soviet Union and the imperialism of the Tsarist Empire. Russian politicians and academics use the term "sphere of influence" in the late 19th-century sense of the ruler's right to control the external and domestic policies of neighboring states.

  While Russia demands recognition as a first rank power, the only things it has to back up this claim is a lot of oil and nuclear weapons. Even with vast oil and energy reserves, its GDP is barely above Brazil's.

  Outside of Moscow and St. Petersburg, Russia is an impoverished, miserable Third World country. Life expectancy for men is 61 years - mostly due to the prevalent alcoholism. Most of the Russian government and economy is mired in corruption. The incredibly low birthrates and high alcoholism rates of the last decades are evidence of a demoralized population, Corum wrote.

  The rise of the new form of Russian nationalism and authoritarianism is something the West should not ignore, the author said. Russia, as he predicts, is likely to turn away from any cooperating with the West and chart a course based on more open confrontation.